The 13 predictions that came due
"The script" quotes AI 2027's own text (main text, footnotes or the margin numbers). "Reality" is as of the end of October 2026. On a phone, swipe the table sideways.
| # | When | The script | Reality | Verdict | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mid 2025 | "you can prompt them with tasks like 'order me a burrito on DoorDash' … they struggle to get widespread usage."Computer-using agents get marketed as personal assistants and check with you before paying, but don't catch on. | ChatGPT launched agent mode in July 2025; the launch demo books a trip and asks before paying. It didn't go mainstream. | ✓ | OpenAI |
| 2 | Mid 2025 | "Coding AIs increasingly look like autonomous agents rather than mere assistants … sometimes saving hours or even days."Coding AIs act like employees and make big changes on their own. | In September 2025, Anthropic said Claude Code had passed $500M in annualized revenue, with usage up 10x in three months. | ✓ | Anthropic |
| 3 | Mid 2025 | "We forecast that mid-2025 agents will score 85% on SWEBench-Verified."(Footnote) 85% on SWE-bench Verified. | The best score by summer 2025 was Claude Opus 4.1 at 74.5%. | ✗ | Authors' grading |
| 4 | Late 2025 | "We imagine the others to be 3–9 months behind OpenBrain."The leading lab, "OpenBrain," is 3–9 months ahead. | The top labs are 0–2 months apart. | ✗ | Authors' grading |
| 5 | Late 2025 | (Number from the scenario) The leader hits $18B in annualized revenue by the end of 2025. | OpenAI reached about $20B, slightly ahead. | ✓ | Authors' grading |
| 6 | Early 2026 | "Early 2026: Coding Automation. The bet of using AI to speed up AI research is starting to pay off."AI labs use their own AI to speed up research. | The authors call this chapter "very on-point." Claude Code passed $2.5B annualized in February 2026; Anthropic engineers self-reported coding speedups rising from 1.25x to 4x in seven months. But in METR's 2025 randomized trial, experienced developers using AI were 19% slower, and a 2026 rerun found 4–20% faster (METR thinks that's an underestimate). How big the speedup really is remains contested. | ✓ | Authors, Aug · METR |
| 7 | Mid 2026 | "Mid 2026: China Wakes Up … A Centralized Development Zone (CDZ) is created at the Tianwan Power Plant."China nationalizes AI research and builds a mega data center at Tianwan. | Didn't happen. The authors' own grade: "more of a miss." | ✗ | Authors, Aug |
| 8 | Mid 2026 | "they are about six months behind the best OpenBrain models"China's best lab is about six months behind. | About seven months, by Epoch AI's capabilities index (ECI). | ✓ | Epoch AI |
| 9 | 2026 | (Scenario numbers, per the authors) By 2026 the leader makes $55B annualized and is worth $2.5 trillion. | Anthropic hit $65B annualized by the end of July, valued at $965B; OpenAI about $50B by the end of September, valued at $852B. Revenue beat the script; valuation didn't. | ✓ | CNBC · CNBC |
| 10 | Late 2026 | "The stock market has gone up 30% in 2026"Stocks up 30% in 2026. | As of the end of October (October 30 close), the S&P 500 was up about 10.7% and the Nasdaq about 9.4% (price). Less than two months to go. Not financial advice. | ✗ | S&P 500 · Nasdaq |
| 11 | Late 2026 | "The job market for junior software engineers is in turmoil"Junior developer jobs in turmoil. | A Stanford study found employment for software developers aged 22–25 down nearly 20% from its late-2022 peak; the researchers stress AI isn't the only cause. | ½ | Stanford |
| 12 | Late 2026 | "there is a 10,000 person anti-AI protest in DC"A 10,000-person anti-AI protest in Washington. | The biggest one was on August 10: a few dozen students outside OpenAI's new DC lobbying office, several arrested. | ✗ | Common Dreams |
| 13 | Late 2026 | "The Department of Defense (DOD) quietly begins contracting OpenBrain directly … This is done via an Other Transaction Authority (OTA) contract"The Pentagon "quietly" contracts OpenBrain; the footnote names the contract type. | In July 2025, the Defense Department gave Anthropic, Google, OpenAI and xAI prototype other transaction agreements worth up to $200M each: more than a year early, with press releases. | ✓ | Anthropic |
Read the original
It's at ai-2027.com, and it's long. Read up to late 2026 first, then the two endings, or the second half might keep you up at night.
